Fri, Feb 9, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 113 | 115 | 236 |
| MIN | 18 | 115 | 17 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:57MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:54PITReilly SmithAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:12MINJonas BrodinAssists: Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 1:01PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 9:34MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Zach Bogosian, Jonas Brodin · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:25MINJake Middleton: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 10:35PITLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:55MINDakota Mermis: Interference2 min
- P1 19:50PITErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:22PITBryan Rust: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 5:22MINKirill Kaprizov: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:39PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:32MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:22PITLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:34PITJansen Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 12:08MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:10MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – White – Harkins2:57
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Rakell – Puljujarvi6:29
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel10:41
xG 0.55–0.80 (41%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor5:24
xG 0.00–0.40 (0%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves9:07
xG 0.36–0.20 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson12:12
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Karlsson – Pettersson2:41
xG 0.07–0.02 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zuccarello – Rossi8:38
xG 0.59–0.07 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Gaudreau3:39
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy8:02
xG 0.50–0.55 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Lucchini4:27
xG 0.01–0.28 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Brodin7:42
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Merrill – Mermis9:15
xG 0.36–0.24 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber6:32
xG 0.39–0.28 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).