Fri, Feb 9, 2024·United Center, Chicago
New York Rangers 4, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 212 | 117 | 03 | 13 | 435 |
| CHI | 18 | 011 | 212 | 00 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39CHIAlex VlasicUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 4:49NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: K'Andre Miller, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 6:16NYRChris KreiderAssists: Adam Fox, Ryan Lindgren · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 9:02NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: Will Cuylle, Kaapo Kakko · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 13:37CHINick FolignoAssists: Isaak Phillips, Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 18:58CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Seth Jones, Philipp Kurashev · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–3
- OT 2:37NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Chris Kreider, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.14 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:15CHITyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:49CHISeth Jones: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:46CHINick Foligno: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:46NYRIgor Shesterkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:23CHIJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:13NYRWill Cuylle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:28NYRRyan Lindgren: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle7:08
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin3:37
xG 0.25–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Trocheck – Lafrenière2:54
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad5:34
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider10:20
xG 1.00–0.64 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Trouba – Miller15:34
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 11–17goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren13:51
xG 0.22–0.53 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Johnson – Kurashev13:26
xG 1.23–0.65 (66%)attempts 18–10goals 1–1
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Entwistle8:46
xG 0.16–0.25 (40%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Dickinson – Anderson8:58
xG 0.19–0.40 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Donato – Pitlick – Reichel4:46
xG 0.02–0.61 (3%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Korchinski9:37
xG 1.00–0.19 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Megna – Korchinski2:15
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Jones – Vlasic17:19
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).