Fri, Feb 9, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 5, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 212 | 311 | 532 |
| ANA | 113 | 12 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:40ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Frank Vatrano, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 9:11EDMEvander KaneAssists: Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:40ANARyan StromeAssists: Leo Carlsson, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 12:51EDMEvander KaneAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 3:20ANARyan StromePPAssists: Frank Vatrano, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 8:41EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 10:09EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 18:50EDMEvander KaneENAssists: Derek Ryan, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:17ANAJackson LaCombe: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:58EDMConnor McDavid: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 2:40EDMEvan Bouchard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:03ANALeo Carlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Kane – Draisaitl13:07
xG 0.97–0.36 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 2–0
- Brown – Janmark – Ryan4:29
xG 0.37–0.16 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:08
xG 0.55–0.39 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Foegele – McLeod – Holloway7:38
xG 0.07–0.37 (15%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Bouchard6:24
xG 0.88–0.09 (91%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak8:38
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 2–0
- Nurse – Desharnais17:09
xG 0.49–0.38 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Jones – Lundeström8:31
xG 0.59–0.27 (68%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Carlsson12:20
xG 0.42–0.33 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Vatrano – Terry – Groulx10:40
xG 0.20–0.51 (28%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
- Carrick – Johnston – Leason10:36
xG 0.13–0.69 (15%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Lyubushkin16:47
xG 0.83–0.93 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Lindstrom – LaCombe10:34
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen18:08
xG 0.35–1.13 (24%)attempts 12–24goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).