Sat, Feb 10, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Dallas Stars 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 321 | 011 | 338 |
| MTL | 06 | 27 | 07 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:38MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 3:51DALThomas HarleyAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 4:15DALTyler SeguinAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Snap, 0.27 xG2–1
- P2 17:45DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P2 18:37MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:06MTLTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
- P1 3:58DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:24MTLJosh Anderson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:10MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:42DALCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:52MTLJayden Struble: Holding2 min
- P3 1:48DALTyler Seguin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:21DALRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:50MTLJake Evans: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Evans
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment9:03
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Smith – Steel – Dellandrea7:23
xG 0.24–0.07 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston5:41
xG 0.24–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:41
xG 0.14–0.27 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley9:56
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Hakanpää – Lindell10:49
xG 0.32–0.25 (56%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Lundkvist10:41
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:54
xG 0.37–0.21 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 2–1
- Armia – Harvey-Pinard – Newhook5:00
xG 0.10–0.16 (38%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans5:14
xG 0.33–0.43 (44%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Gignac – Pezzetta – Ylonen2:42
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle11:43
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 12–6goals 2–0
- Savard – Struble11:49
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj8:16
xG 0.02–0.66 (3%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).