Sat, Feb 10, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 3, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 016 | 18 | 25 | 329 |
| BOS | 04 | 04 | 010 | 018 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, Connor McMichael · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P3 3:24WSHDylan StromeAssists: Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie · Snap, 0.21 xG2–0
- P3 19:33WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Beck Malenstyn · Backhand, 0.71 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:49BOSHampus Lindholm: Holding2 min
- P1 18:13BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P1 18:13BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 6:19WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:30WSHMax Pacioretty: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:35WSHJohn Carlson: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Coyle won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas8:06
xG 0.70–0.02 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Sgarbossa – Wilson8:02
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome8:51
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn7:44
xG 0.09–0.07 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Edmundson2:45
xG 0.64–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin9:25
xG 0.61–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Carlson – Sandin2:44
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie3:34
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Pastrnak2:10
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk3:47
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Heinen – Richard – Boqvist3:42
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Wotherspoon7:29
xG 0.24–0.01 (97%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy4:12
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Forbort – Lindholm2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).