Mon, Feb 12, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Calgary Flames 0, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 013 | 010 | 029 |
| NYR | 011 | 110 | 110 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:31NYRWill CuylleGWGAssists: Kaapo Kakko, Jonny Brodzinski · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P3 19:41NYRJimmy VeseyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:36CGYOliver Kylington: Interference2 min
- P1 12:28NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:28CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51NYRErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51NYRArtemi Panarin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:10CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:01NYRKaapo Kakko: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:46CGYBrayden Pachal: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary11:32
xG 0.62–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Rooney – Duehr2:10
xG 0.20–0.14 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:09
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:48
xG 0.44–1.09 (29%)attempts 10–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Pachal11:18
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson15:10
xG 0.24–0.46 (35%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Tanev – Hanifin15:05
xG 0.39–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle8:00
xG 0.81–0.18 (82%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:14
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad9:36
xG 0.58–0.58 (50%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Edstrom8:49
xG 0.02–0.25 (7%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Miller13:59
xG 1.73–0.41 (81%)attempts 28–11goals 1–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider12:42
xG 0.29–0.52 (35%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Fox – Lindgren14:39
xG 0.30–0.74 (29%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).