Mon, Feb 12, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 214 | 04 | 311 | 529 |
| VGK | 26 | 014 | 110 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nicolas Roy, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:48MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 12:09MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 17:45VGKMichael AmadioPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Brendan Brisson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:28MINMarco RossiAssists: Matt Boldy, Brock Faber · Poke, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 7:29MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 9:40VGKMark StoneAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–3
- P3 19:38MINJoel Eriksson EkENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.76 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:09VGKSheldon Rempal: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:51VGKKeegan Kolesar: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:49VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:21MINDakota Mermis: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 3:18MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:35MINBrandon Duhaime: Interference2 min
- P2 16:40MINMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min
- P3 3:05MINJon Merrill: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:48
xG 0.79–0.17 (82%)attempts 17–5goals 1–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi8:34
xG 0.58–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Lettieri – Dewar – Lucchini5:13
xG 0.00–0.11 (4%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Hartman – Gaudreau – Duhaime5:43
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Mermis12:26
xG 0.71–0.13 (85%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Brodin – Faber3:36
xG 0.34–0.02 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Brodin11:47
xG 0.50–0.29 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Rempal – Brisson7:14
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Rondbjerg6:35
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Roy9:37
xG 0.12–0.51 (19%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
- Stone – Stephenson – Amadio10:35
xG 0.17–0.84 (17%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hague – Whitecloud13:50
xG 0.31–0.55 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miromanov12:59
xG 0.17–0.60 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:41
xG 0.27–0.75 (26%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).