Tue, Feb 13, 2024·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 0, Buffalo Sabres 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 05 | 013 | 015 | 033 |
| BUF | 39 | 28 | 27 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:25BUFJJ PeterkaGWGAssists: Jordan Greenway, Jacob Bryson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:58BUFJordan GreenwayUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P1 19:25BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 6:42BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Ryan Johnson, Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–4
- P2 14:17BUFZach BensonAssists: Jacob Bryson, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–5
- P3 4:30BUFAlex TuchUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG0–6
- P3 7:50BUFJordan GreenwayAssists: Alex Tuch, Casey Mittelstadt · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–7
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:34LAKAndreas Englund: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:11LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:33BUFJacob Bryson: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:00BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:21BUFConnor Clifton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Anderson-Dolan – Turcotte3:57
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Dubois – Anderson-Dolan – Laferriere4:34
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Dubois – Byfield – Laferriere4:31
xG 0.25–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore8:51
xG 0.24–0.31 (43%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Englund5:01
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Spence5:32
xG 0.15–0.29 (35%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Doughty – Anderson12:34
xG 0.42–0.57 (42%)attempts 19–9goals 0–2
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Greenway – Mittelstadt12:13
xG 0.88–0.37 (71%)attempts 13–20goals 3–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson10:56
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Olofsson – Krebs10:28
xG 0.05–0.24 (18%)attempts 3–13goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson8:26
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:27
xG 1.56–0.54 (74%)attempts 19–27goals 0–0
- Clifton – Bryson14:06
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 8–18goals 2–0
- Johnson – Johnson10:51
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).