Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Anaheim Ducks 0, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 06 | 03 | 04 | 013 |
| MTL | 012 | 317 | 29 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:43MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Josh Anderson · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 9:37MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Jayden Struble · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 17:00MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Alex Newhook · Snap, 0.13 xG0–3
- P3 7:26MTLJuraj SlafkovskýPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P3 17:15MTLBrandon GignacAssists: Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.31 xG0–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 0:18ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P1 3:36MTLKaiden Guhle: Holding2 min
- P1 12:44ANAMax Jones: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:35ANALeo Carlsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:13ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:13MTLArber Xhekaj: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:47ANAJackson LaCombe: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Holding2 min
- P3 6:32ANACam Fowler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:19ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:37MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:37MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:37ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:02ANAAdam Henrique: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:02MTLKaiden Guhle: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00ANARoss Johnston: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00MTLJayden Struble: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00MTLJayden Struble: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestCarrick – Johnston – Groulx6:17
xG 0.40–0.17 (71%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Henrique – Strome – Carlsson9:40
xG 0.50–0.29 (64%)attempts 7–6goals 0–2
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström5:32
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Strome – Terry – Carlsson2:48
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Vaakanainen13:17
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mintyukov2:17
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – LaCombe12:30
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGignac – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:59
xG 0.39–0.17 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy9:04
xG 0.18–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský10:04
xG 0.53–0.70 (43%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans10:27
xG 0.24–0.46 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle6:20
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Guhle – Xhekaj2:38
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Struble2:57
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).