Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
St. Louis Blues 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 03 | 18 | 04 | 115 |
| TOR | 210 | 09 | 213 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:33TORBobby McMannAssists: Noah Gregor · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:25TORWilliam NylanderGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–2
- P2 5:36STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Nathan Walker, Matthew Kessel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 8:02TORBobby McMannAssists: TJ Brodie, Simon Benoit · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 18:21TORBobby McMannENAssists: Mark Giordano, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
Penalties (4)
- P2 3:08TORMax Domi: Interference2 min
- P2 10:50TORMatthew Knies: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:04STLColton Parayko: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:59STLSammy Blais: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Schenn – Kyrou – Neighbours3:13
xG 0.20–0.16 (55%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Blais6:30
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Thomas2:32
xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours7:18
xG 0.03–0.41 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leddy – Parayko18:46
xG 0.58–0.73 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
- Scandella – Rosen8:08
xG 0.15–0.34 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Krug – Kessel16:30
xG 0.19–1.19 (14%)attempts 9–20goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies11:30
xG 0.95–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Robertson11:00
xG 1.02–0.55 (65%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Holmberg – Steeves7:51
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann10:10
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Liljegren14:23
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Giordano – Lagesson9:46
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit13:01
xG 0.63–0.32 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).