Tue, Feb 13, 2024·UBS Arena, Elmont
Seattle Kraken 2, New York Islanders 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 17 | 010 | 011 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
| NYI | 010 | 110 | 05 | 02 | 0 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 14:37NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. NYI Oliver Wahlstrom stopped
- 2. SEA Matty Beniers stopped
- 3. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 4. SEA Tomas Tatar scored
- 5. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:24SEAAndre Burakovsky: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:02SEAYanni Gourde: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:59NYISimon Holmstrom: High sticking2 min
- OT 3:11NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:28SEAJaden Schwartz: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg10:21
xG 1.01–0.11 (91%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers10:49
xG 0.66–0.17 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen12:15
xG 0.69–0.24 (74%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Tatar – Tanev – Kartye7:41
xG 0.12–0.29 (30%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen16:06
xG 1.23–0.45 (73%)attempts 24–15goals 0–0
- Schultz – Evans12:19
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:44
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 23–19goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall8:27
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:27
xG 0.02–0.14 (15%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Horvat – Engvall – Barzal4:25
xG 0.02–0.24 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal11:49
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Reilly – Mayfield13:02
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov17:50
xG 0.32–0.89 (26%)attempts 17–20goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock14:35
xG 0.25–1.07 (19%)attempts 9–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).