Tue, Feb 13, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Detroit Red Wings 4, Edmonton Oilers 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 216 | 110 | 438 |
| EDM | 211 | 111 | 514 | 836 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:48EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 11:05EDMCody CeciAssists: Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 15:39DETAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Moritz Seider · Slap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 10:17EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 11:24DETJoseph VelenoPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
- P2 14:30DETPatrick KaneAssists: J.T. Compher, David Perron · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 0:44EDMDylan HollowayAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 3:27EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 12:55EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.26 xG3–6
- P3 13:41EDMEvander KaneAssists: Connor McDavid, Vincent Desharnais · Snap, 0.24 xG3–7
- P3 15:10DETDavid PerronAssists: Ben Chiarot, Christian Fischer · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–7
- P3 17:49EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.13 xG4–8
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:14EDMSam Gagner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 10:25EDMMattias Ekholm: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Larkin – DeBrincat – Raymond11:48
xG 0.58–0.59 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–2
- Perron – Kane – Compher12:59
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 2–1
- Copp – Fischer – Rasmussen12:26
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Sprong – Kostin – Veleno9:06
xG 0.29–0.65 (30%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Gostisbehere14:49
xG 0.64–0.21 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Walman – Seider16:55
xG 1.35–1.37 (50%)attempts 21–22goals 1–3
- Petry – Chiarot21:01
xG 0.52–1.29 (29%)attempts 14–25goals 1–2
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid14:29
xG 1.33–0.57 (70%)attempts 26–12goals 4–1
- Brown – Foegele – Ryan2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Foegele – McLeod – Holloway6:17
xG 0.02–0.06 (20%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Holloway3:45
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard17:43
xG 1.99–1.09 (65%)attempts 26–18goals 3–1
- Kulak – Desharnais15:05
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Ceci – Nurse19:46
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 13–22goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).