Thu, Feb 15, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Seattle Kraken 4, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 110 | 28 | 426 |
| BOS | 117 | 011 | 09 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.33 xG0–1
- P1 9:11SEAJordan EberlePPAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Matty Beniers · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 17:35SEAEeli TolvanenGWGAssists: Matty Beniers · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 8:36SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 19:41SEAJared McCannENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG4–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 5:04SEAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:02BOSBrandon Carlo: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:47SEAAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:17BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestGourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen9:29
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:44
xG 0.38–0.25 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tatar – Beniers2:23
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Tanev – Kartye3:32
xG 0.02–0.51 (3%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schultz – Dumoulin10:35
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn18:03
xG 0.37–1.02 (27%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen14:36
xG 0.12–1.26 (9%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – DeBrusk9:11
xG 1.06–0.11 (90%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Frederic7:44
xG 0.78–0.07 (92%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Richard – Geekie6:54
xG 0.48–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Heinen – Steen – Boqvist4:48
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy10:46
xG 1.35–0.25 (84%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – McAvoy7:06
xG 0.61–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Forbort – Wotherspoon10:16
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).