Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Madison Square Garden, New York
Montréal Canadiens 4, New York Rangers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 110 | 110 | 216 | 436 |
| NYR | 010 | 415 | 36 | 731 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:29MTLJake EvansAssists: Josh Anderson, Tanner Pearson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 11:09NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jacob Trouba · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:27NYRWill CuylleAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 14:43NYRMika ZibanejadSHAssists: Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 15:19NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
- P2 16:30MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 4:23NYRVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Braden Schneider · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 6:53MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 7:59NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Jimmy Vesey · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–6
- P3 9:56NYRKaapo KakkoAssists: Adam Fox, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–7
- P3 11:27MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Kaiden Guhle · Snap, 0.10 xG4–7
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:06MTLJayden Struble: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:56NYRVincent Trocheck: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:43MTLBrendan Gallagher: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 17:52NYRJonathan Quick: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:36MTLTanner Pearson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:15NYRJonny Brodzinski: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:08MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:19NYRAdam Fox: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:57NYRAlexis Lafrenière: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPearson – Anderson – Evans9:43
xG 1.11–0.37 (75%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:50
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Gallagher – Gignac – Pezzetta6:19
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Armia – Newhook – Roy7:53
xG 0.17–0.57 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestStruble – Guhle10:40
xG 0.91–0.40 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Savard – Struble2:58
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Savard – Xhekaj2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:31
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Vesey3:24
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 2–2
- Goodrow – Vesey – Edstrom6:37
xG 0.08–0.04 (67%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Kakko – Cuylle8:39
xG 0.84–0.83 (50%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Miller16:22
xG 0.52–0.61 (46%)attempts 10–17goals 1–2
- Fox – Lindgren13:32
xG 0.92–1.13 (45%)attempts 18–20goals 4–1
- Gustafsson – Schneider13:27
xG 0.36–0.84 (30%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).