Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 214 | 014 | 110 | 338 |
| STL | 18 | 415 | 17 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:13STLRobert ThomasAssists: Nick Leddy, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:51EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 19:33EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 1:09STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 8:37STLTorey KrugAssists: Jake Neighbours, Matthew Kessel · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 15:32STLJordan KyrouPPGWGAssists: Jake Neighbours, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–4
- P2 19:35STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–5
- P3 11:14EDMCorey PerryAssists: Brett Kulak, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–5
- P3 17:07STLBrandon SaadENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:20STLMatthew Kessel: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:33STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:04STLNikita Alexandrov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:55EDMVincent Desharnais: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:25EDMVincent Desharnais: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:15STLMarco Scandella: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:39EDMConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:44EDMCody Ceci: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:36EDMVincent Desharnais: Elbowing2 min
- P3 6:36EDMVincent Desharnais: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 14:49EDMDylan Holloway: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Janmark – Ryan4:21
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins2:23
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Holloway6:32
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:03
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse11:51
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais11:42
xG 0.55–0.34 (61%)attempts 19–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard11:50
xG 0.93–1.00 (48%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSundqvist – Walker – Alexandrov2:51
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours9:16
xG 0.72–0.77 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas10:37
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Hayes – Saad – Toropchenko8:21
xG 0.18–0.30 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Kessel13:55
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 15–15goals 2–0
- Leddy – Parayko11:17
xG 0.67–0.76 (47%)attempts 12–13goals 1–1
- Scandella – Rosen8:31
xG 0.27–0.46 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).