Thu, Feb 15, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 212 | 07 | 28 | 427 |
| CHI | 010 | 19 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Rickard Rakell · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 12:40PITReilly SmithGWGAssists: Drew O'Connor · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 8:22CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Snap, 0.25 xG2–1
- P3 5:51PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Rickard Rakell, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 19:10PITBryan RustENAssists: Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:04CHIJaycob Megna: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:38PITColin White: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:40PITRickard Rakell: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – O'Connor12:12
xG 0.71–0.40 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell13:40
xG 0.73–0.43 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Carter – White – Gruden5:48
xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Puljujarvi – Puustinen7:08
xG 0.07–0.36 (16%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Pettersson19:36
xG 1.17–0.20 (85%)attempts 18–11goals 3–0
- Ruhwedel – Ludvig10:47
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves19:46
xG 0.81–1.06 (43%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKatchouk – Raddysh – Entwistle7:25
xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard15:59
xG 0.64–0.72 (47%)attempts 11–13goals 1–2
- Blackwell – Sanford – Donato8:58
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dickinson – Anderson12:12
xG 0.04–0.77 (5%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Korchinski14:47
xG 1.02–0.80 (56%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Tinordi – Crevier10:25
xG 0.16–0.40 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Vlasic18:58
xG 0.36–0.94 (28%)attempts 13–20goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).