Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 6, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 310 | 313 | 631 |
| CGY | 113 | 19 | 112 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19CGYNazem KadriAssists: Martin Pospisil · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:52SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Filip Zadina · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 7:50SJSJustin BaileyAssists: Filip Zadina · Snap, 0.35 xG2–1
- P2 12:30SJSLuke KuninPPAssists: William Eklund, Kyle Burroughs · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 19:40CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Chris Tanev, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 4:38SJSFilip ZadinaGWGAssists: Nico Sturm, Justin Bailey · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 5:15SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Justin Bailey, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 15:30SJSLuke KuninUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 16:40CGYAndrei KuzmenkoAssists: Chris Tanev, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.12 xG6–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:38SJSMike Hoffman: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:57SJSTy Emberson: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:23SJSAlexander Barabanov: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:20SJSJan Rutta: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:36CGYBlake Coleman: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:34CGYBlake Coleman: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:40SJSFilip Zadina: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 2:10CGYWalker Duehr: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:34CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:34SJSLuke Kunin: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CGYBlake Coleman: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKunin – Barabanov – Eklund10:31
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund9:16
xG 0.26–0.39 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Bailey – Carpenter – Zadina5:56
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Rutta10:56
xG 0.52–0.26 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Emberson9:03
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Burroughs – Addison10:56
xG 0.37–0.77 (33%)attempts 12–21goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko7:34
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Rooney – Schwindt – Duehr6:51
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary10:04
xG 0.67–0.66 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane10:12
xG 0.31–0.39 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:14
xG 1.26–0.36 (78%)attempts 27–14goals 2–1
- Kylington – Pachal12:32
xG 0.61–0.72 (46%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Weegar – Andersson12:47
xG 0.24–0.74 (24%)attempts 10–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).