Thu, Feb 15, 2024·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 9, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 418 | 315 | 28 | 941 |
| NSH | 01 | 221 | 07 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35DALSam SteelUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 4:27DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 12:31DALCraig SmithGWGAssists: Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–0
- P1 15:53DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.26 xG4–0
- P2 4:40DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Ty Dellandrea · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–0
- P2 9:50NSHCole SmithAssists: Michael McCarron, Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.03 xG5–1
- P2 10:51DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Mason Marchment · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–1
- P2 11:21NSHTommy NovakAssists: Gustav Nyquist · Backhand, 0.09 xG6–2
- P2 19:47DALMatt DucheneAssists: Tyler Seguin, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.11 xG7–2
- P3 3:50DALTy DellandreaAssists: Jason Robertson, Ryan Suter · Slap, 0.11 xG8–2
- P3 8:50DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.25 xG9–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 7:35DALJani Hakanpää: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:23NSHCole Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 4:12DALJamie Benn: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:21NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:21NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:21NSHMichael McCarron: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Steel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Seguin – Marchment9:48
xG 0.97–0.12 (89%)attempts 9–9goals 2–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston11:19
xG 0.92–0.26 (78%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel10:21
xG 0.61–0.10 (86%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson12:38
xG 0.97–0.57 (63%)attempts 13–18goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell12:02
xG 1.09–0.38 (74%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Suter – Heiskanen5:08
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Lindell – Heiskanen4:24
xG 0.31–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Glass2:54
xG 0.12–0.05 (69%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Novak – Gurianov2:16
xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Gurianov – Afanasyev3:40
xG 0.03–0.05 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- McCarron – Novak – Glass2:20
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Carrier5:40
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauzon6:41
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Barrie7:03
xG 0.16–0.33 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).