Sat, Feb 17, 2024·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Edmonton Oilers 4, Dallas Stars 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 310 | 06 | 11 | 424 |
| DAL | 06 | 316 | 05 | 00 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:08DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 2:03EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Corey Perry · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 4:47DALThomas HarleyAssists: Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 6:55EDMCorey PerryAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 18:42EDMDerek RyanSHAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 19:02DALMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mason Marchment, Thomas Harley · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:30EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:00DALRoope Hintz: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:22EDMBrett Kulak: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:17DALMason Marchment: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:34DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:58EDMCorey Perry: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00EDMLeon Draisaitl: Holding2 min
- OT 0:23DALWyatt Johnston: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Draisaitl – McDavid13:55
xG 0.62–0.26 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Kane – Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins12:27
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Janmark – Foegele – McLeod6:59
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Gagner – Brown – Ryan4:38
xG 0.04–0.12 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:33
xG 1.32–0.31 (81%)attempts 18–8goals 2–0
- Ceci – Nurse14:41
xG 0.75–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kulak – Desharnais13:35
xG 0.07–0.44 (14%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Faksa – Steel8:45
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:18
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Benn – Dellandrea – Johnston9:23
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson13:02
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Suter – Hanley9:54
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Lindell7:21
xG 0.31–0.44 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell7:45
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).