Sat, Feb 17, 2024·United Center, Chicago
Ottawa Senators 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 17 | 122 | 013 | 242 |
| CHI | 18 | 16 | 18 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:29CHINick FolignoAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Connor Bedard · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:57OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 8:13OTTJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Tim Stützle · Slap, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 10:54CHIConnor BedardAssists: Philipp Kurashev · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 18:08CHIJason DickinsonGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Joey Anderson · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:37CHITyler Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:51CHITaylor Raddysh: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:32OTTErik Brannstrom: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Joseph – Stützle12:22
xG 1.09–0.23 (82%)attempts 18–8goals 1–1
- Tarasenko – Pinto – Greig10:21
xG 0.40–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk14:23
xG 0.77–0.48 (62%)attempts 17–11goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly3:58
xG 0.14–0.02 (87%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub16:29
xG 1.13–0.46 (71%)attempts 30–13goals 1–1
- Chabot – Chychrun18:53
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 19–14goals 0–1
- Hamonic – Brannstrom10:58
xG 0.36–0.45 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Johnson – Dickinson – Anderson13:14
xG 0.49–0.67 (42%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Sanford – Donato7:02
xG 0.11–0.29 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Katchouk – Raddysh – Entwistle11:17
xG 0.19–0.49 (28%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard13:59
xG 0.44–1.09 (29%)attempts 10–23goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMegna – Jones2:34
xG 0.35–0.02 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Crevier2:02
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Megna2:26
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).