Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 5, Calgary Flames 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 28 | 28 | 15 | 521 |
| CGY | 012 | 016 | 010 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:56DETPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Moritz Seider, Robby Fabbri · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:59DETJ.T. CompherAssists: Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 5:12DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 6:41DETDavid PerronAssists: Andrew Copp, Joseph Veleno · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 15:40DETLucas RaymondAssists: Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–0
Penalties (16)
- P1 14:53CGYConnor Zary: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:13DETMichael Rasmussen: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:13CGYMartin Pospisil: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:46DETBen Chiarot: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:11DETJoseph Veleno: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:11CGYBrayden Pachal: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:53CGYMartin Pospisil: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:56DETJoseph Veleno: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:28CGYAndrei Kuzmenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:40DETRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40DETRobby Fabbri: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:40CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:44CGYMartin Pospisil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 8:58CGYConnor Zary: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:30DETMoritz Seider: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:41DETJoseph Veleno: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Perron – Copp – Veleno9:17
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Compher – DeBrincat – Raymond9:00
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 8–19goals 2–0
- Kane – Larkin – Rasmussen11:19
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong7:03
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Walman – Seider11:24
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere12:59
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Petry – Chiarot14:59
xG 0.20–0.76 (21%)attempts 10–32goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary10:35
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Hunt – Rooney – Duehr5:42
xG 0.26–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Kuzmenko9:28
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 16–8goals 0–1
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:07
xG 0.40–0.30 (58%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin13:47
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 23–10goals 0–1
- Weegar – Andersson13:50
xG 0.70–0.40 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Kylington – Pachal11:36
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).