Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Buffalo Sabres 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 012 | 03 | 212 | 11 | 328 |
| MIN | 012 | 010 | 210 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:39BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 4:02MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 11:21MINDeclan ChisholmPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Marco Rossi · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:23BUFDylan CozensAssists: Jordan Greenway, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.39 xG2–2
- OT 1:29BUFHenri JokiharjuGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:22MINMatt Boldy: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:50BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:03MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:51MINVinni Lettieri: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:17BUFConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:37BUFConnor Clifton: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Robinson7:10
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Cozens10:56
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Krebs – Peterka – Benson8:36
xG 0.50–0.47 (51%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson10:51
xG 0.10–0.97 (10%)attempts 6–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Johnson6:00
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:32
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 14–5goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Johnson2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:50
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi9:03
xG 0.57–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar4:53
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Dewar – Lucchini2:51
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bogosian – Brodin16:26
xG 0.65–0.63 (51%)attempts 19–16goals 1–0
- Merrill – Chisholm9:18
xG 0.08–0.06 (55%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber14:03
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).