Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 4, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 216 | 09 | 29 | 434 |
| MTL | 111 | 17 | 113 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Aliaksei Protas, Nick Jensen · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 5:04MTLArber XhekajAssists: Joshua Roy, Joel Armia · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 10:00WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 16:15MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Joel Armia · Snap, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 3:27WSHSonny MilanoAssists: Max Pacioretty, Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 9:45MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Juraj Slafkovský, Mike Matheson · Snap, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 11:57WSHAliaksei ProtasGWGAssists: Nic Dowd, Anthony Mantha · Snap, 0.26 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:05MTLJoel Armia: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:00WSHAliaksei Protas: Interference2 min
- P3 8:40WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:33WSHTom Wilson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMantha – McMichael – Protas10:27
xG 0.80–0.36 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Pacioretty – Sgarbossa – Milano9:45
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Strome14:07
xG 0.80–0.67 (54%)attempts 20–15goals 0–0
- Dowd – Wilson – Malenstyn10:31
xG 0.47–0.71 (40%)attempts 8–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – van Riemsdyk4:42
xG 0.57–0.04 (94%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Jensen – Edmundson6:11
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Jensen – van Riemsdyk6:26
xG 0.46–0.11 (81%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Newhook – Roy9:47
xG 0.74–0.21 (78%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský17:25
xG 1.39–0.94 (60%)attempts 30–19goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Gignac – Pezzetta6:41
xG 0.07–0.33 (18%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
- Pearson – Anderson – Evans11:17
xG 0.02–1.32 (1%)attempts 3–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Guhle18:10
xG 1.05–0.78 (57%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Xhekaj13:01
xG 0.83–0.77 (52%)attempts 20–17goals 1–1
- Savard – Struble15:36
xG 0.26–1.40 (16%)attempts 6–24goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).