Sat, Feb 17, 2024·MetLife Stadium, East RutherfordOutdoor game
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 227 | 112 | 348 |
| NJD | 213 | 214 | 213 | 640 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:32NJDNico HischierAssists: Ondrej Palat, John Marino · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 13:30NJDTyler ToffoliAssists: Brendan Smith, Jack Hughes · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 7:43PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Konecny, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 16:36NJDBrendan SmithAssists: Ondrej Palat, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P2 17:48NJDNathan BastianGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Curtis Lazar · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 18:23PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 2:48NJDNico HischierAssists: Jesper Bratt, John Marino · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–5
- P3 9:07PHINick SeelerAssists: Scott Laughton, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 18:15NJDNathan BastianENAssists: Erik Haula, Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.74 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:35PHIMorgan Frost: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:10NJDColin Miller: Delaying game2 min
- P1 5:57PHIJamie Drysdale: Holding2 min
- P1 19:18PHIScott Laughton: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:32PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:32NJDColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:12NJDSimon Nemec: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:51PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:46PHINick Seeler: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:00NJDOndrej Palat: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Hathaway – Poehling4:30
xG 0.64–0.21 (76%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Poehling – Cates3:58
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Couturier – Farabee4:07
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett4:00
xG 0.03–0.16 (14%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Walker11:17
xG 0.89–0.39 (69%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Sanheim – Zamula8:05
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Staal – Drysdale5:25
xG 0.13–0.57 (18%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier11:07
xG 1.52–0.29 (84%)attempts 17–15goals 3–1
- Nosek – Mercer – Holtz2:22
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Lazar – Meier – Mercer3:53
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Nosek – Bastian – Holtz2:41
xG 0.01–0.10 (8%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Hughes13:22
xG 1.23–0.35 (78%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Bahl – Nemec15:41
xG 0.98–0.47 (67%)attempts 18–23goals 0–0
- Smith – Miller12:32
xG 0.83–1.24 (40%)attempts 13–26goals 4–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).