Sat, Feb 17, 2024·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Winnipeg Jets 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 07 | 213 | 28 | 428 |
| VAN | 012 | 214 | 011 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:19VANNoah JuulsenAssists: Conor Garland, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 5:16WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 9:25WPGSean MonahanPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Mark Scheifele · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 14:19VANTyler MyersUnassisted · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 7:47WPGGabriel VilardiGWGAssists: Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:42WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 6:39VANTyler Myers: Elbowing2 min
- P1 13:00WPGNate Schmidt: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:48VANNils Hoglander: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 9:16VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:16WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:16VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 10:49WPGBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 15:06WPGNate Schmidt: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:55VANNils Hoglander: Boarding2 min
- P2 0:00WPGMark Scheifele: Embellishment2 min
- P2 0:00VANJ.T. Miller: Interference2 min
- P3 4:37WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi11:04
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Barron3:55
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:31
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Monahan – Ehlers – Perfetti7:49
xG 0.34–1.07 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorrissey – Pionk2:38
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 1–1
- Dillon – Pionk13:10
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg9:27
xG 0.31–0.86 (26%)attempts 6–13goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Suter9:38
xG 1.15–0.18 (87%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Blueger – Garland – Mikheyev8:13
xG 0.50–0.16 (76%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Di Giuseppe – Lafferty – Aman5:45
xG 0.12–0.15 (43%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pettersson – Hoglander8:57
xG 0.28–0.63 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Myers12:56
xG 1.22–0.31 (80%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Zadorov – Hughes2:19
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes15:21
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).