Sun, Feb 18, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Los Angeles Kings 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 013 | 210 | 234 |
| PIT | 112 | 07 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:43PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 13:49LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Drew Doughty, Viktor Arvidsson · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 16:50LAKAdrian KempeSHGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:32PITReilly Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:26LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:38LAKPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:39PITKris Letang: Holding2 min
- P2 9:04PITSidney Crosby: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:44LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:01LAKAlex Laferriere: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:57LAKTrevor Moore: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Fiala – Arvidsson5:17
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore6:04
xG 0.31–0.05 (87%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Dubois – Byfield – Laferriere9:02
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Fiala – Kempe4:29
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Clarke9:20
xG 0.62–0.13 (82%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson13:59
xG 0.82–0.44 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Englund – Roy8:22
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – White – Harkins4:04
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor10:33
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Eller – Puljujarvi – Phillips4:02
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:44
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Pettersson2:14
xG 0.07–0.07 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Ludvig5:48
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson12:24
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).