Mon, Feb 19, 2024·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 3, Boston Bruins 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 113 | 122 | 19 | 02 | 1 | 346 |
| BOS | 17 | 112 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:01BOSJesper BoqvistAssists: Anthony Richard, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P1 11:14DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Thomas Harley, Jamie Benn · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 1:04DALRyan SuterAssists: Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–1
- P2 1:32BOSJustin BrazeauAssists: Jesper Boqvist, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 10:44DALEsa LindellAssists: Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 18:15BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.05 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BOS Charlie Coyle stopped
- 2. DAL Jason Robertson scored
- 3. BOS David Pastrnak stopped
- 4. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 5. BOS Brad Marchand scored
- 6. DAL Wyatt Johnston stopped
- 7. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 8. DAL Roope Hintz stopped
- 9. BOS James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 10. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 11. BOS Kevin Shattenkirk stopped
- 12. DAL Thomas Harley stopped
- 13. BOS Trent Frederic stopped
- 14. BOS Jesper Boqvist stopped
- 15. DAL Sam Steel stopped
- 16. BOS Charlie McAvoy scored
- 17. DAL Craig Smith stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:35BOSCharlie McAvoy: Interference2 min
- P1 19:20BOSBrad Marchand: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:20DALJoel Hanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:54DALRadek Faksa: Holding2 min
- P2 14:40BOSHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P2 19:48DALRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Boqvist
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dellandrea – Johnston11:57
xG 0.89–0.62 (59%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Seguin – Marchment – Steel9:37
xG 0.32–0.49 (40%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Faksa – Johnston2:00
xG 0.00–0.32 (1%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson14:35
xG 0.48–0.88 (35%)attempts 17–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Hanley11:00
xG 0.94–0.15 (87%)attempts 21–4goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley13:58
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Hanley – Harley2:43
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRichard – Brazeau – Boqvist3:27
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Frederic – Brazeau – Boqvist6:27
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Geekie2:34
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – Heinen4:35
xG 0.18–0.32 (36%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:26
xG 0.59–0.21 (73%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Grzelcyk3:07
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Forbort – McAvoy4:46
xG 0.17–0.27 (39%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).