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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul

Vancouver Canucks 7, Minnesota Wild 10

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VAN2431228724
MIN18297101027

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 2:51VANIan ColeAssists: Tyler Myers, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
  2. P1 13:21VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
  3. P1 19:10MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Matt Boldy, Kirill Kaprizov · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
  4. P2 5:37VANElias PetterssonAssists: Nils Hoglander, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
  5. P2 9:24VANJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
  6. P2 11:00MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
  7. P2 14:30VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–2
  8. P2 19:27MINMats ZuccarelloPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–3
  9. P3 0:29MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–4
  10. P3 1:23MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Slap, 0.13 xG5–5
  11. P3 1:44MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.10 xG5–6
  12. P3 4:48MINMarco RossiAssists: Jake Lucchini, Vinni Lettieri · Deflected, 0.18 xG5–7
  13. P3 5:12MINKirill KaprizovGWGAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.20 xG5–8
  14. P3 8:26VANNikita ZadorovAssists: J.T. Miller, Pius Suter · Wrist, 0.04 xG6–8
  15. P3 17:52VANBrock BoeserAssists: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek · Tip-in, 0.08 xG7–8
  16. P3 18:53MINJonas BrodinENAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.31 xG7–9
  17. P3 19:58MINKirill KaprizovENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.56 xG7–10
Penalties (11)
  1. P1 4:04VANConor Garland: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 4:04MINMats Zuccarello: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 4:04VANNoah Juulsen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  4. P1 4:37VANElias Lindholm: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 0:47MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Tripping2 min
  6. P2 8:22MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 17:57VANNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min · PPG
  8. P2 18:48VANTeddy Blueger: High sticking2 min · PPG
  9. P2 19:51VANElias Pettersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 0:48VANJ.T. Miller: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
  11. P3 14:56MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VAN00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0MIN
46% to win54% to win
← VAN attackMIN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VANMIN
24Shots on goal27
2.8Expected goals3.8
69Shot attempts62
28Faceoffs won26
3Power plays6
14Penalty minutes8
22Hits21
17Blocked shots23
3Giveaways5
3Takeaways7

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestMiller – Boeser – Suter9:35

    xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 4–1

  2. Lindholm – Pettersson – Hoglander9:45

    xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1

  3. Blueger – Garland – Mikheyev9:34

    xG 0.11–0.06 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0

  4. Di Giuseppe – Lafferty – Aman5:35

    xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestHronek – Hughes17:00

    xG 1.07–0.61 (64%)attempts 22–15goals 1–3

  2. Zadorov – Juulsen10:05

    xG 0.42–0.23 (64%)attempts 14–8goals 2–0

  3. Cole – Myers11:01

    xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0

Minnesota Wild

Forward lines

  1. bestGaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar7:35

    xG 0.09–0.02 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0

  2. Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy10:02

    xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 10–13goals 3–2

  3. Hartman – Lettieri – Lucchini5:50

    xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1

  4. Johansson – Zuccarello – Hartman4:00

    xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMerrill – Chisholm10:32

    xG 0.48–0.21 (69%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1

  2. Bogosian – Middleton4:14

    xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0

  3. Bogosian – Brodin12:15

    xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

MIN 3.8 xGVAN 2.8 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

MINVAN

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.

Excitement 99/100 · #22 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.24 · 17 goals in reach · 3-goal lead cutComeback index 5% (winner's lowest chance)
VAN 100%5050%50MIN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +27 pts

Did the better team win?

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.

MIN winsVAN wins

Simulated goal difference (MIN − VAN), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).