Mon, Feb 19, 2024·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 313 | 08 | 010 | 331 |
| CGY | 213 | 212 | 29 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19CGYOliver KylingtonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:07WPGSean MonahanPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi · Poke, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 6:49WPGSean MonahanAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Josh Morrissey · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 11:24WPGSean MonahanPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–1
- P1 14:09CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 4:58CGYNazem KadriPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 16:06CGYJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 13:18CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:03CGYNazem KadriENAssists: Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:26CGYRasmus Andersson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:52CGYOliver Kylington: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:34WPGGabriel Vilardi: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:30WPGSean Monahan: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:02CGYChris Tanev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton11:57
xG 0.39–0.25 (60%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Barron7:15
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Monahan – Ehlers – Perfetti12:10
xG 0.38–0.52 (43%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:47
xG 0.54–1.05 (34%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey12:13
xG 0.58–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Dillon – Schmidt3:50
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:36
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane13:13
xG 0.84–0.29 (74%)attempts 18–12goals 2–0
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Sharangovich7:42
xG 0.47–0.11 (82%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Sharangovich – Zary2:24
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hunt – Rooney – Duehr2:08
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKylington – Pachal14:19
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Tanev – Hanifin17:24
xG 0.73–0.55 (57%)attempts 22–16goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson16:14
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).