Mon, Feb 19, 2024·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 05 | 14 | 28 | 317 |
| CAR | 114 | 317 | 211 | 642 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:45CARMichael BuntingAssists: Martin Necas, Jack Drury · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:59CARMartin NecasUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 8:22CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 10:52CARSebastian AhoGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
- P2 15:23CHINick FolignoAssists: Connor Bedard · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 2:34CARBrent BurnsPPAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.04 xG1–5
- P3 7:00CHIConnor BedardPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.32 xG2–5
- P3 9:08CHITyler JohnsonPPAssists: Connor Bedard, Nick Foligno · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 18:11CARJordan MartinookENAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.54 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:26CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:45CARSeth Jarvis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:07CHITyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:35CHIBoris Katchouk: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:00CHIAlex Vlasic: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:20CARJack Drury: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 8:03CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:24CHIKevin Korchinski: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Dickinson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Johnson – Katchouk – Raddysh6:42
xG 0.06–0.36 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
- Blackwell – Donato – Entwistle4:53
xG 0.04–0.41 (8%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
- Dickinson – Beauvillier – Anderson11:36
xG 0.36–0.74 (33%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard12:52
xG 0.15–0.87 (15%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Korchinski2:38
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Megna – Vlasic3:06
xG 0.06–0.13 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Crevier – Korchinski3:43
xG 0.03–0.31 (8%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Teravainen – Kotkaniemi7:33
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:38
xG 0.54–0.09 (85%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- Fast – Aho – Svechnikov10:25
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury9:50
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – DeAngelo12:10
xG 0.89–0.05 (94%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Orlov – Pesce15:36
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 23–14goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin15:52
xG 0.98–0.41 (70%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).