Tue, Feb 20, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 013 | 312 | 17 | 11 | 533 |
| PIT | 112 | 113 | 216 | 00 | 441 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:48PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Rickard Rakell, Erik Karlsson · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 3:40NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 6:37NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Ilya Sorokin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:15NYISimon HolmstromUnassisted · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–1
- P2 16:35PITLars EllerAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 10:42NYIMike ReillyAssists: Brock Nelson, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 12:06PITValtteri PuustinenAssists: Kris Letang, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 13:02PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 0:57NYIAdam PelechGWGAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:41PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:28NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:10PITRickard Rakell: Interference2 min
- P2 16:35NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 19:27NYIMike Reilly: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom6:55
xG 0.77–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 1–1
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:05
xG 0.60–0.44 (58%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal14:58
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:14
xG 0.02–0.49 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:47
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 12–18goals 2–1
- Dobson – Romanov13:22
xG 0.55–0.46 (55%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- Reilly – Mayfield13:02
xG 0.47–1.05 (31%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith – Puustinen10:12
xG 0.55–0.07 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell15:15
xG 0.87–0.49 (64%)attempts 23–9goals 1–1
- Carter – Malkin – O'Connor2:44
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Carter – White – Harkins4:33
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Joseph13:18
xG 0.57–0.48 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Pettersson19:56
xG 0.94–0.94 (50%)attempts 28–13goals 2–2
- Ruhwedel – Graves8:47
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).