Tue, Feb 20, 2024·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 3, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 011 | 117 | 211 | 339 |
| WPG | 28 | 16 | 316 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:20WPGGabriel VilardiPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:34WPGMason AppletonAssists: Adam Lowry, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 1:54WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 14:10MINMarco RossiPPAssists: Declan Chisholm, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 9:38WPGGabriel VilardiPPGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 10:36WPGSean MonahanAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Nikolaj Ehlers · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 12:33MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 14:11MINMarco RossiAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:02WPGNino NiederreiterENAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:32MINDeclan Chisholm: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:03WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:38MINJake Middleton: Holding2 min
- P1 17:38MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:38WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:14WPGGabriel Vilardi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:52WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:21MINJake Middleton: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:11MINRyan Hartman: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:36WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:36MINJake Lucchini: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:36WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zuccarello – Hartman9:19
xG 0.77–0.08 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar8:25
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Lettieri – Lucchini – Rossi7:42
xG 0.40–0.20 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy8:17
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiddleton – Faber11:57
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Brodin – Chisholm8:05
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Brodin4:06
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:37
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Kupari3:46
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Monahan – Ehlers – Perfetti8:28
xG 0.26–0.46 (36%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi10:51
xG 0.41–1.43 (22%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pionk13:05
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Stanley – Samberg9:35
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:31
xG 0.61–1.53 (29%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).