Tue, Feb 20, 2024·Ball Arena, Denver
Vancouver Canucks 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 17 | 010 | 08 | 125 |
| COL | 07 | 111 | 29 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:46VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 2:54COLRyan JohansenAssists: Jack Johnson, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 1:35COLRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Zach Parise · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 19:32COLArtturi LehkonenENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.69 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:35VANArshdeep Bains: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:24COLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:44VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min
- P3 13:21COLArtturi Lehkonen: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:27VANIan Cole: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Suter12:02
xG 0.35–0.05 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Blueger – Garland – Bains8:18
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Di Giuseppe – Mikheyev – Aman4:36
xG 0.05–0.07 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Pettersson – Hoglander11:38
xG 0.30–0.62 (33%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Juulsen11:20
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Myers12:52
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Hronek – Hughes18:15
xG 0.66–0.74 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Drouin – Rantanen16:00
xG 1.18–0.39 (75%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Wood – Lehkonen – Colton10:42
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Wagner – Olofsson5:08
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Parise – Johansen – Kiviranta8:11
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar18:57
xG 1.14–0.26 (81%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson2:52
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Manson – Girard11:17
xG 0.13–0.50 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).