Tue, Feb 20, 2024·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Nashville Predators 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 215 | 114 | 540 |
| VGK | 18 | 010 | 28 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 14:09VGKAlex PietrangeloAssists: Alec Martinez, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:08NSHCody GlassAssists: Roman Josi, Yakov Trenin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 8:04NSHTommy NovakAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Alexandre Carrier · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 15:58NSHCole SmithGWGAssists: Michael McCarron, Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–1
- P3 0:47VGKWilliam KarlssonPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 17:01VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Alec Martinez, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 18:11NSHGustav NyquistENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:11VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P1 8:20NSHLuke Evangelista: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:54NSHLuke Evangelista: Interference2 min
- P2 6:00VGKMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:24NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:49VGKChandler Stephenson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:52NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 7:58VGKJonathan Marchessault: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Sherwood – Smith5:48
xG 0.52–0.09 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista6:49
xG 0.35–0.14 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:48
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:42
xG 0.36–0.47 (43%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro12:22
xG 0.95–0.35 (73%)attempts 16–6goals 2–1
- Lauzon – Carrier13:23
xG 0.59–0.43 (58%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn11:53
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Stephenson – Cotter2:40
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Stephenson – Cotter3:21
xG 0.22–0.03 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Amadio – Kolesar – Morelli4:39
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Morelli2:31
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Whitecloud2:22
xG 0.13–0.04 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:04
xG 0.34–0.51 (40%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore12:05
xG 0.28–0.64 (30%)attempts 5–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).