Wed, Feb 21, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 7, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 37 | 113 | 37 | 727 |
| ANA | 010 | 47 | 014 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:32CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Jack Roslovic · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:32CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jake Bean · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P1 18:30CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Boone Jenner, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–0
- P2 2:49CBJSean KuralyAssists: Alexandre Texier · Tip-in, 0.21 xG4–0
- P2 9:07ANATroy TerryAssists: Urho Vaakanainen, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 16:05ANAMason McTavishAssists: Troy Terry, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 18:49ANAMason McTavishAssists: Troy Terry, Pavel Mintyukov · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
- P2 19:36ANAAlex KillornAssists: Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–4
- P3 6:50CBJEgor ChinakhovGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–4
- P3 7:39CBJSean KuralyAssists: Cole Sillinger, Alexandre Texier · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–4
- P3 19:27CBJBoone JennerENAssists: Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.77 xG7–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:33ANACam Fowler: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:52CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:52ANARoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:51CBJCole Sillinger: Holding2 min
- P2 17:36CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:37ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:57CBJJustin Danforth: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:57CBJMathieu Olivier: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:57ANARadko Gudas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:19CBJErik Gudbranson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:38CBJJack Roslovic: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic11:56
xG 0.88–0.27 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 3–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov9:06
xG 0.24–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Olivier – Texier7:19
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Danforth – Johnson – Sillinger7:52
xG 0.12–0.52 (19%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov14:33
xG 0.63–0.33 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski7:25
xG 0.42–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Bean8:19
xG 0.17–0.12 (57%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Silfverberg – Strome – Lundeström9:04
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Jones6:10
xG 0.15–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Killorn – Henrique – Carlsson12:53
xG 0.16–0.29 (36%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Vatrano – Terry – McTavish11:23
xG 0.67–0.80 (45%)attempts 13–11goals 2–3
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Vaakanainen14:33
xG 0.78–0.55 (59%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov13:32
xG 0.48–0.48 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Gudas – LaCombe13:11
xG 0.12–0.38 (24%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).