Thu, Feb 22, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 16 | 04 | 05 | 115 |
| OTT | 18 | 313 | 09 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Drake Batherson, Jake Sanderson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:50DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P2 5:37OTTJosh NorrisGWGAssists: Drake Batherson, Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:56OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Tim Stützle, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 19:43OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.15 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:48OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:48DALRadek Faksa: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:27DALJoel Hanley: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 4:07DALJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40DALMatt Duchene: Cross checking2 min
- P3 0:00OTTJakob Chychrun: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00DALMason Marchment: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Johnston6:06
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:49
xG 0.32–0.30 (51%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Robertson – Dellandrea – Johnston4:59
xG 0.05–0.04 (55%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel4:52
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley17:57
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 20–10goals 1–1
- Suter – Hanley8:18
xG 0.21–0.21 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Hanley4:56
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Greig8:07
xG 0.74–0.19 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle13:15
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly6:34
xG 0.16–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Tkachuk – Pinto11:15
xG 0.73–0.71 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Brannstrom16:12
xG 1.09–0.40 (73%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub15:40
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Chabot – Bernard-Docker15:34
xG 0.63–0.62 (50%)attempts 8–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).