Thu, Feb 22, 2024·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 0, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 020 | 012 | 038 |
| STL | 08 | 39 | 18 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:38STLBrandon SaadPPGWGAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Brayden Schenn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:45STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:10STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 9:21STLPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Robert Thomas · Backhand, 0.55 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:45STLNathan Walker: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:06NYIOliver Wahlstrom: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:50STLKasperi Kapanen: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:07NYIKyle MacLean: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:48NYIKyle Palmieri: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:02STLMatthew Kessel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:22STLNathan Walker: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:23NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23STLBrandon Saad: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:40NYIBo Horvat: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:27STLRobert Thomas: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:21NYINoah Dobson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sundqvist won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Barzal – Holmstrom3:38
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall6:34
xG 0.17–0.05 (79%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal3:39
xG 0.23–0.16 (59%)attempts 4–3goals 0–2
- Lee – Horvat – Wahlstrom3:44
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Pulock2:42
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson7:58
xG 0.21–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Dobson – Romanov3:46
xG 0.19–0.14 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas9:05
xG 0.37–0.06 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko6:49
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Neighbours – Bolduc2:58
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hayes – Saad – Bolduc4:15
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko12:21
xG 0.44–0.18 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Scandella – Perunovich8:18
xG 0.26–0.18 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Krug – Kessel12:31
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).