Thu, Feb 22, 2024·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 111 | 25 | 421 |
| LAK | 16 | 08 | 014 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:47NSHYakov TreninAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan McDonagh · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:07LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Adrian Kempe · Snap, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 14:46NSHMark JankowskiGWGAssists: Luke Evangelista, Tommy Novak · Poke, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 17:00NSHColton SissonsENAssists: Jeremy Lauzon · Snap, 0.48 xG3–1
- P3 19:07NSHJeremy LauzonENAssists: Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.35 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:59NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:33NSHMichael McCarron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:33LAKAdrian Kempe: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:44NSHCole Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:44NSHYakov Trenin: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:10LAKTrevor Lewis: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:24LAKKevin Fiala: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:06LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:59
xG 0.41–0.13 (75%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:16
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith5:35
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg10:36
xG 0.30–0.70 (30%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Schenn12:59
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Josi – Fabbro13:52
xG 0.54–0.40 (58%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Lauzon – Carrier12:11
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 2–15goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Lewis – Turcotte – Kaliyev4:15
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Danault – Fiala – Moore7:59
xG 0.09–0.20 (30%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Dubois – Byfield – Laferriere3:02
xG 0.03–0.18 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere7:28
xG 0.04–0.21 (16%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Englund5:16
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Roy – Clarke2:44
xG 0.34–0.22 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Englund – Roy6:36
xG 0.13–0.21 (39%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).