Fri, Feb 23, 2024·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Buffalo Sabres 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 116 | 013 | 18 | 237 |
| CBJ | 111 | 08 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 16:16BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Kale Clague · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 3:05BUFConnor CliftonGWGAssists: Jacob Bryson, Zach Benson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:35CBJSean Kuraly: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:39BUFUkko-Pekka Luukkonen: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:52CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:30BUFRasmus Dahlin: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00BUFKale Clague: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:26CBJDamon Severson: Holding2 min
- P2 18:36CBJDmitri Voronkov: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:00CBJZach Werenski: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Voronkov won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Robinson6:52
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson8:05
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Krebs – Peterka – Benson8:29
xG 0.53–0.28 (66%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Cozens8:38
xG 0.10–0.27 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Johnson7:21
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Clifton – Bryson12:22
xG 0.31–0.06 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin17:36
xG 1.04–1.03 (50%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMarchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov9:40
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Danforth – Johnson – Sillinger7:54
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Olivier – Texier7:26
xG 0.12–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Roslovic9:54
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Provorov15:08
xG 0.36–0.26 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Werenski3:24
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Werenski – Boqvist12:06
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).