Fri, Feb 23, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Minnesota Wild 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 06 | 37 | 420 |
| EDM | 06 | 113 | 124 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:37MINMatt BoldyAssists: Jake Middleton, Joel Eriksson Ek · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 10:27EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 9:31MINJonas BrodinAssists: Declan Chisholm, Kirill Kaprizov · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 12:18MINMatt BoldyGWGAssists: Ryan Hartman, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 14:51EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:33MINMats ZuccarelloENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.42 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:42EDMWarren Foegele: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 0:46EDMEvander Kane: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:47EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:10MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:11EDMVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:06MINDeclan Chisholm: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestEriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy13:21
xG 1.44–1.27 (53%)attempts 24–16goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar5:12
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lucchini – Rossi2:42
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Lettieri – Lucchini – Rossi7:06
xG 0.18–0.41 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Merrill – Mermis12:26
xG 0.72–0.74 (49%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber16:40
xG 1.07–1.63 (40%)attempts 20–25goals 2–0
- Brodin – Chisholm15:32
xG 0.43–1.42 (23%)attempts 15–28goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Foegele – McDavid10:09
xG 1.26–0.62 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid4:18
xG 0.57–0.33 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl10:49
xG 0.64–0.69 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Perry – Ryan – Holloway2:00
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCeci – Nurse17:52
xG 1.46–0.75 (66%)attempts 28–16goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:37
xG 1.61–1.10 (59%)attempts 21–23goals 0–2
- Kulak – Desharnais9:57
xG 0.47–0.34 (58%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).