Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Prudential Center, Newark
Montréal Canadiens 3, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 210 | 16 | 326 |
| NJD | 05 | 28 | 211 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:06MTLBrendan GallagherAssists: Jake Evans, Josh Anderson · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 5:23NJDTimo MeierAssists: Kevin Bahl, Tyler Toffoli · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 13:07MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Cole Caufield, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 17:50NJDOndrej PalatAssists: Simon Nemec · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 13:33NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Luke Hughes · Snap, 0.35 xG2–3
- P3 16:33NJDJesper BrattGWGAssists: Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 18:09MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Joel Armia, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P2 7:05MTLMike Matheson: Interference2 min
- P3 12:01MTLNick Suzuki: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPearson – White – Ylonen7:27
xG 0.47–0.06 (88%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Anderson – Evans10:24
xG 0.45–0.30 (59%)attempts 8–12goals 1–1
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský16:58
xG 0.46–0.69 (40%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Armia – Newhook – Roy10:14
xG 0.11–0.37 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris13:56
xG 0.89–0.23 (80%)attempts 19–8goals 2–1
- Savard – Xhekaj15:55
xG 0.42–0.68 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Matheson – Guhle18:08
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Hughes8:06
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier6:36
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Hughes – Mercer5:29
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Haula – Palat – Lazar4:11
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Marino18:09
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Bahl – Nemec13:08
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 3–0
- Miller – Hughes14:33
xG 0.45–0.45 (50%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).