Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Washington Capitals 2, Florida Panthers 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 18 | 15 | 03 | 224 |
| FLA | 04 | 111 | 111 | 13 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:03FLANick CousinsAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 18:31WSHSonny MilanoPPAssists: Rasmus Sandin, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 10:11WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Deflected, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 16:30FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 3:41FLAGustav ForslingGWGAssists: Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:51FLAGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:41FLAWilliam Lockwood: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:42FLAEvan Rodrigues: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:42WSHConnor McMichael: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:38WSHAnthony Mantha: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:38FLANick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:38WSHAnthony Mantha: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:51FLANiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 0:12WSHJohn Carlson: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:04FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:42WSHNick Jensen: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McMichael
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Strome – Malenstyn2:07
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Wilson – Mantha – Strome9:57
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Pacioretty – Sgarbossa – Milano7:33
xG 0.08–0.01 (85%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Protas – Dube3:16
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – van Riemsdyk3:13
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Alexeyev6:30
xG 0.28–0.17 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Jensen2:25
xG 0.04–0.01 (86%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Bennett – Rodrigues2:28
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cousins – Verhaeghe – Bennett8:39
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Lorentz – Lockwood – Gadjovich4:14
xG 0.15–0.08 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart2:41
xG 0.03–0.01 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling11:37
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Forsling3:18
xG 0.07–0.01 (92%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov9:54
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).