Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Ottawa Senators 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 16 | 112 | 19 | 02 | 0 | 329 |
| OTT | 08 | 212 | 17 | 06 | 1 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 3:03VGKChandler StephensonPPAssists: Shea Theodore, Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 9:00OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 18:47OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 5:48OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:45VGKChandler StephensonAssists: William Karlsson, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. OTT Josh Norris stopped
- 2. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 3. OTT Tim Stützle scored
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. OTT Claude Giroux stopped
- 6. VGK Shea Theodore stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:02OTTMathieu Joseph: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:02VGKBrendan Brisson: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:50VGKMichael Amadio: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:42VGKZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:51OTTParker Kelly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38OTTBrady Tkachuk: Interference2 min
- P2 18:01VGKPaul Cotter: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Brisson12:02
xG 0.88–0.26 (78%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Froese – Rempal – Morelli7:52
xG 0.62–0.19 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter8:14
xG 0.05–0.20 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Stephenson – Barbashev – Amadio12:53
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud12:16
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:13
xG 0.51–0.49 (51%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague2:30
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Tkachuk – Pinto10:12
xG 0.93–0.33 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Greig10:20
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Giroux – Joseph – Stützle13:21
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Kubalik – Kastelic – Kelly5:42
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Brannstrom14:53
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson16:00
xG 0.44–0.57 (44%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Chychrun14:13
xG 0.49–0.88 (36%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).