Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 6, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 312 | 210 | 19 | 631 |
| EDM | 18 | 113 | 114 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:02CGYNazem KadriAssists: Walker Duehr, Noah Hanifin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:11CGYMartin PospisilAssists: Connor Zary, Brayden Pachal · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P1 15:53CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Mikael Backlund, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.25 xG3–0
- P1 18:29EDMZach HymanPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard · Bat, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 4:34EDMZach HymanAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 11:47CGYDryden HuntGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.13 xG4–2
- P2 14:09CGYNoah HanifinPPAssists: Connor Zary, Rasmus Andersson · Snap, 0.22 xG5–2
- P3 12:51CGYBlake ColemanENAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Wrist, 0.37 xG6–2
- P3 16:16EDMMattias JanmarkAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.14 xG6–3
Penalties (22)
- P1 12:46EDMZach Hyman: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:42CGYRasmus Andersson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:46CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:46EDMConnor McDavid: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:02EDMMattias Janmark: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:02CGYBlake Coleman: Embellishment2 min
- P2 9:06CGYBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:06EDMMattias Janmark: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:14EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:11CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:59EDMCorey Perry: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:59EDMMattias Ekholm: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:59EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:59CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:46CGYRasmus Andersson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:45CGYBlake Coleman: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:45EDMDylan Holloway: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:22EDMEvander Kane: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:22EDMEvander Kane: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McLeod won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Mangiapane8:40
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 8–5goals 0–1
- Huberdeau – Hunt – Sharangovich10:47
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Rooney – Pelletier – Duehr3:42
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary8:20
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Andersson13:12
xG 1.01–0.92 (52%)attempts 11–21goals 1–2
- Tanev – Hanifin12:52
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 9–16goals 2–0
- Kylington – Pachal11:32
xG 0.33–0.65 (33%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:38
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 11–3goals 1–0
- Brown – Ryan – Holloway5:20
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Hyman – Foegele – McDavid4:12
xG 0.40–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Kane – Janmark – McLeod7:00
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard11:26
xG 0.96–0.62 (61%)attempts 18–6goals 2–1
- Nurse – Desharnais3:16
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ceci – Kulak4:41
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).