Sat, Feb 24, 2024·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Minnesota Wild 5, Seattle Kraken 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 39 | 012 | 531 |
| SEA | 19 | 012 | 111 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36SEAVince DunnAssists: Jared McCann, Matty Beniers · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:59MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jake Middleton · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 13:32MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 1:09MINMatt BoldyPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 2:14MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P2 6:58MINDakota MermisAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–1
- P3 6:11SEAJordan EberleAssists: Adam Larsson · Backhand, 0.01 xG5–2
Penalties (16)
- P1 12:38SEAJaden Schwartz: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:07SEAJamie Oleksiak: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:40MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:22SEAAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:58MINBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:58SEAVince Dunn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:45MINMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:03MINJon Merrill: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P2 17:28SEAYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:28MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:10SEAVince Dunn: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:34MINJoel Eriksson Ek: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:44SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 15:18MINMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:36SEAWill Borgen: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:36MINBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestLettieri – Lucchini – Rossi7:30
xG 0.66–0.15 (81%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Duhaime – Dewar5:02
xG 0.30–0.16 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy9:32
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Hartman9:20
xG 0.22–0.66 (25%)attempts 7–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Chisholm15:10
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Merrill – Mermis7:54
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
- Middleton – Faber10:26
xG 0.02–0.37 (6%)attempts 2–17goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Burakovsky – Wennberg6:37
xG 0.68–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gourde – Tanev3:20
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen5:47
xG 0.05–0.01 (77%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Tatar – Beniers2:09
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin10:27
xG 0.28–0.02 (93%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn11:59
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen7:00
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).