Sat, Feb 24, 2024·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 18 | 115 | 212 | 435 |
| SJS | 08 | 05 | 212 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:14NSHKiefer SherwoodAssists: Michael McCarron, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 18:27NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Tommy Novak, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 1:10SJSMikael GranlundAssists: Ty Emberson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:40NSHKiefer SherwoodGWGAssists: Alexandre Carrier · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 9:34SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 19:48NSHGustav NyquistENAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:53NSHJeremy Lauzon: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:40NSHDante Fabbro: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:05SJSKyle Burroughs: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:52SJSTy Emberson: Holding2 min
- P2 17:10SJSHenry Thrun: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Carpenter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Novak – Evangelista9:08
xG 0.73–0.19 (80%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Sherwood – Smith9:17
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:43
xG 0.27–0.30 (47%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:41
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro14:06
xG 1.22–0.33 (79%)attempts 20–11goals 2–1
- Lauzon – Carrier14:51
xG 0.88–0.41 (68%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Schenn12:41
xG 0.81–0.53 (60%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestZadina – Sturm – Barabanov8:53
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund10:16
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Bailey – Carpenter – Smith4:48
xG 0.00–0.54 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–2
- Hoffman – Kunin – Eklund11:38
xG 0.07–0.74 (9%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ferraro – Rutta2:04
xG 0.06–0.06 (52%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Rutta – Thrun12:52
xG 0.50–0.81 (38%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Ferraro – Emberson13:34
xG 0.71–1.15 (38%)attempts 16–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).