Sun, Feb 25, 2024·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 39 | 25 | 621 |
| PIT | 211 | 210 | 311 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11PHIScott LaughtonAssists: Olle Lycksell, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 9:38PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:15PITBryan RustAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 0:55PHITyson FoersterAssists: Owen Tippett, Sean Walker · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 11:15PITBryan RustPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 13:38PITEmil BemstromPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P2 16:33PHITravis SanheimAssists: Sean Couturier · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P2 17:36PHIScott LaughtonSHAssists: Noah Cates, Cam York · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 6:41PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Valtteri Puustinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–5
- P3 8:38PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–6
- P3 10:10PHICam YorkAssists: Olle Lycksell, Tyson Foerster · Snap, 0.08 xG5–6
- P3 15:13PITKris LetangGWGUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG5–7
- P3 17:57PHITyson FoersterPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–7
Penalties (8)
- P2 1:52PITLars Eller: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 4:14PHIMorgan Frost: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:12PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:54PHINicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:48PHITravis Sanheim: Interference2 min
- P3 3:26PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32PITRickard Rakell: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:30PITSidney Crosby: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Poehling
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Poehling – Cates7:53
xG 0.36–0.14 (72%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Laughton – Lycksell3:20
xG 0.19–0.10 (65%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
- Laughton – Tippett – Foerster7:11
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Frost – Lycksell – Farabee3:43
xG 0.01–0.08 (7%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Sanheim2:27
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Sanheim – York12:19
xG 0.36–0.34 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
- Seeler – Walker12:40
xG 0.47–0.92 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Puustinen – O'Connor9:55
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell8:38
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 15–9goals 2–1
- Eller – Smith – Bemstrom7:27
xG 0.23–0.19 (55%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari8:17
xG 0.12–0.35 (25%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRuhwedel – Graves8:51
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–12goals 0–2
- Karlsson – Pettersson17:05
xG 0.65–0.37 (63%)attempts 18–16goals 2–1
- Letang – Joseph10:32
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 18–5goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).