Sun, Feb 25, 2024·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 4, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 113 | 39 | 429 |
| ANA | 08 | 112 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:00NSHRoman JosiAssists: Filip Forsberg, Dante Fabbro · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 11:55ANAIsac LundeströmAssists: Max Jones, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 3:26NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 8:43NSHMichael McCarronGWGAssists: Dante Fabbro, Kiefer Sherwood · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 17:36ANABrett LeasonAssists: Mason McTavish, Adam Henrique · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 17:58NSHGustav NyquistENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.42 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:15ANASam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:57ANASam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:57NSHJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:23ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:51NSHAlexandre Carrier: Interference2 min
- P2 13:06ANARadko Gudas: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:54ANARadko Gudas: Holding2 min
- P3 0:46NSHKiefer Sherwood: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:41NSHRoman Josi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCarron won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Sherwood – Smith8:49
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Glass7:32
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Novak – Evangelista7:03
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:03
xG 0.16–0.52 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Fabbro11:47
xG 0.85–0.62 (58%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Josi – Carrier2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Carrier2:08
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVatrano – Leason – McTavish11:58
xG 0.35–0.21 (63%)attempts 15–16goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Strome – Lundeström5:40
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Carrick – Johnston – Jones5:08
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Strome – Jones – Lundeström2:08
xG 0.01–0.04 (13%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Lindstrom14:06
xG 0.37–0.26 (59%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Gudas – Vaakanainen14:34
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov10:19
xG 0.48–0.59 (44%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).