Mon, Feb 26, 2024·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Los Angeles Kings 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 111 | 115 | 014 | 240 |
| EDM | 18 | 111 | 212 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Quinton Byfield, Andreas Englund · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 19:36EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 7:34LAKAlex LaferriereAssists: Anze Kopitar, Matt Roy · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P2 15:56EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 1:25EDMEvan BouchardGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 16:31EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor Brown, Mattias Janmark · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:16EDMEvan Bouchard: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:52EDMVincent Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:43LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:45LAKMatt Roy: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:53LAKTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Lizotte – Kaliyev4:51
xG 0.47–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Laferriere10:11
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Danault – Fiala – Moore10:46
xG 0.45–0.58 (44%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Dubois – Anderson-Dolan – Byfield6:25
xG 0.06–0.23 (20%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnglund – Spence9:10
xG 0.54–0.20 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Doughty – Gavrikov19:07
xG 0.74–0.77 (49%)attempts 18–19goals 0–3
- Roy – Moverare15:17
xG 0.51–0.92 (36%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Foegele – McLeod10:24
xG 0.68–0.22 (76%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid14:02
xG 0.92–0.66 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 2–1
- Kane – Nugent-Hopkins – Janmark10:09
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Ryan – Holloway5:21
xG 0.20–0.46 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Desharnais13:54
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Ekholm – Bouchard15:38
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Ceci – Nurse14:27
xG 0.35–0.95 (27%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).