Tue, Feb 27, 2024·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vegas Golden Knights 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 09 | 311 | 312 | 632 |
| TOR | 09 | 111 | 110 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:11VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Michael Amadio, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 12:20VGKMason MorelliAssists: Shea Theodore, Sheldon Rempal · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 17:45TORTyler BertuzziAssists: Jake McCabe, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 19:09VGKWilliam KarlssonGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Snap, 0.21 xG3–1
- P3 10:50VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–1
- P3 14:35TORRyan ReavesAssists: Pontus Holmberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 18:23VGKJonathan MarchessaultENAssists: Alex Pietrangelo · Tip-in, 0.43 xG5–2
- P3 19:29VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.09 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:12TORBobby McMann: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:45TORTJ Brodie: Holding2 min
- P2 13:03TORBobby McMann: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:58VGKMichael Amadio: Interference2 min
- P3 15:07TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:46TOR: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKarlsson – Marchessault – Brisson11:12
xG 0.90–0.21 (81%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Stephenson – Barbashev – Amadio12:11
xG 0.88–0.78 (53%)attempts 15–21goals 1–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Cotter10:21
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
- Froese – Rempal – Morelli8:59
xG 0.24–0.69 (26%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHague – Whitecloud14:34
xG 0.62–0.30 (68%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo16:25
xG 0.91–0.64 (59%)attempts 18–23goals 1–1
- McNabb – Theodore16:27
xG 0.82–1.09 (43%)attempts 13–25goals 3–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Kampf – Holmberg7:36
xG 0.41–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Marner – Matthews – Knies9:40
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Robertson – McMann9:07
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Domi – Nylander10:31
xG 0.29–0.86 (25%)attempts 15–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Lagesson13:09
xG 1.19–0.29 (80%)attempts 23–7goals 0–0
- McCabe – Benoit10:03
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – Benoit6:08
xG 0.21–0.36 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).